by tchap623 » Fri Mar 07, 2025 6:48 pm
I watch a lot of NBA basketball. This does not make me an expert or even good - but I am not rooting for Kalk to go somewhere because I like a specific team or narrative.
The draft prognostication of Kalk seems to drift to CW of big men - wants to play back to basket, he's just tall, etc. I think this is categorically wrong - but it almost always illustrates that the draftnik has not watched anything more than his highlights.
I think he will ultimately have a pretty long NBA career as a fringe starter / backup. He is great defensively - particularly in drop coverage or as a help defender to the rim. When I went through the league and looked at fit, the key is defensive setup and existing centers. This is not a depth chart issue but a style of play issue. For example, Kalk might fit with the Kings if their other center was not Sabonis who plays the 5 and tends to position offensively on the elbow. This necessitates a complete rehash of what Kalk does well. Moreover, the starting 4, Keegan Murray is a pure shooter - so it is not like they can drop Kalk into the 5 and shift Sabonis to the 4. Thus, while Kalk could be drafted as a backup by the Kings - it would be a misfit. This is true of teams like the Celtics (want shooting at every position), the Rockets (Sengun is a unique player that is hard to see Kalk working around or replacing in non-starter lineups), etc.
There are also teams like the Thunder, Nets, Wizards, etc. who simply are not baked in a way to have any way of predicting who they might draft or what they might do next year on offense or defense. For example, the Nets have Nic Claxton who is a good center for the NBA - mobile, bouncy, etc...but they also have pick #22, 23, 25, 37...that is a likely spot for Kalk. I think if one of those picks is where he is selected it will be as part of a trade - likely with the Suns or Lakers, and probably at #37.
So, here are the places that I can imagine Kalk as a long-term fixture either because of need, type of defense, or existing starter overlap. There is no particular order:
1. Cavs. Evan Mobley is the backup 5 when they don't play Allen. But, Kalk and Allen have surprising overlap in terms of skill and Allen makes a lot of money for a defense first, 5th option (not unlike where people see Kalk). Pick #52
2. Warriors. Theoretically, the closing 5 is Draymond Green with Butler at the 4. But, both are pretty old and have missed significant time in the last couple of years. They could run out a lineup with Kalk at the 5 on a regular basis instead of Post (their current backup). They play more of a switching defense where Kalk might not be a great fit - but they would benefit from rim protection against certain teams. Pick #44
3. Lakers. Their 5s are Jaxon Hays, Koloko, Len, and Jemmison. They desperately need a rim defender who can roll and dunk with Lebron and Luka. Hayes does the rolling part well - but he is not a good defender compared to Kalk, right now. This is, IMO, the best fit for Kalk in the NBA with upside of title and long-term success. But, Kalk will likely be gone by pick #56.
4. Bucks. This is one that I am unsure of, but many have said that they see Kalk as a future Brook Lopez. I don't think he will ever be as good a shooter - but the Bucks play drop coverage and need a strong 5 to pair with Giannis to keep him fresh. No pick in 2025.
5. Knicks. The Knicks will be seeking to find a good defensive 5 to pair with KAT as he is not a rim defender and they struggle with their KAT, Brunson lineups on defense. Teams eat them alive at the rim. No 2025 pick.
6. T-Wolves. This is unlikely as Gobert just signed an extension. But, Kalk is a less bouncy, less good rebounder with way more offensive skill than Gobert. The key is the loss of Naz Reid. They will need a backup big. Pick #19 - more likely at #33.
7. Suns. They are desperate for a center to play defense. With Beal, KD, and Booker, Kalk's role would be to play defense - protecting the rim and rebounding. They also would want a hard roller and someone that cannot be helped off of - creating space. This is a likely candidate at #30.
8. Spurs. This is where I hope Kalk goes. Right now, the Spurs are playing Biyombo as their 5 with Wemby hurt. The starting 4 is Harrison Barnes who could slide down to the 3 or simply play the 4 when Kalk is on the floor and Wemby is not. But, I think it is natural to have a strong 4 or 5 to pair with Wemby to create a role where Wemby can roam. With Wemby and Kalk alternating time, they would be impossible to score on near the basket - even against good NBA players. It also lets Castle and Sohan wreak havoc. But, Kalk is not going #9 or #15 - so it would have to be at #39.