JayPharmAlum wrote:Duke1Agn wrote:Given that neither of our 2014 recruits saw the floor this year, I understand the tendency to be cautious surrounding expectations for Justin, but I see absolutely no circumstance (except injury) in which he doesn't play significant (15+) minutes right off the bat. He probably won't start right away, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect he does assume the starting role at some point. He has natural ability that no centers on our roster have. He will rebound and block shots better than anyone on our roster right away.
I couldn't disagree more. Groselle has turned out be a serviceable (and sometimes pretty good) 7 footer. To think a 215lb freshman center is going to come in and win the starting job seems a bit unrealistic. If both Groselle and Hanson are back next year, Patton will redshirt.
I don't think it is a sure thing he will redshirt, nor do I think it's a sure thing he won't. Minutes are going to be tight all over the roster. We have 3 newcomers who have been with the team a year who I see taking up 80 of the 200 minutes of court time (Watson: 30, Huff: 30, Harrell: 20) then we have some experienced guys returning who will get minutes.. Zierden, Milliken, Hegner, Groselle and Hanson. Even if we assume some of them losing minutes, we are still looking at 80 more minutes gone.. at the very, very least given that they played about 100 a game this year.
We have a lot of people back at the 5, but we don't play our 5's too much. Wragge played 27 minutes a game, Echenique played 23 at his peak, this year it's been Artino at 16, Hanson at 12, Groselle at 12. We've been playing Groselle as much as we can lately but even then he's only been above 20 minutes 5 times the entire year given his health. Looking at the last 7 games where he's played the most, he's averaged 18 a game.
So if that is the baseline he starts with 18 and that leaves some combination of Hanson, Hegner and Patton to play the remaining 22. I tend to think Hegner will play 5-10 at the 5 next year (at least that's where I see the coaches wanting him to play a bit), so it will come down to Patton fighing Hanson for the remaining 12-17 off the bench.. and that's assuming Groselle stays healthy.
That's why wouldn't be surprised either way. Patton has a ways to go, but has been advancing incredibly fast. Hanson has had a down year, but he has a lot of ability IMO and is older, more mature and a banger (we saw that come in handy against Nova this last game). We just don't know enough at this point to really know for sure.
