UncleBillyJ wrote:JacobPadilla wrote:+/- isn't an individual stat, it's a summary of what happened during a stretch of time. It's the start of an investigation, not an answer, but it's also not meaningless. Basketball is an organic sport where each of the 10 players on the court impacts the others; it's not a series of one-on-one matchups. A guy can shoot poorly while the team still operates well with him on the court in one-off situations. The game is complicated.
What +/- tells us is Creighton was objectively better with Miller on the court than off the last two games. Is that simply a result of shot variance in Creighton's favor when he was out there compared to when he wasn't? Or does it have to do with the way teams are playing on both ends when he's out there compared to other options? Either way, it isn't likely to hold up long-term with his current level of play, and the longer this goes on the more clear it becomes that he probably just isn't going to find his shot this year. But if you're focusing on Miller as the reason for the small margin of victory and the loss in the last two games, you're just barking up the wrong tree.
At this point fans are so hyper-fixated on every negative play he makes to the point of ignoring any positive results that may happen while he's on the floor. Mac highlighted the impact of his floor-spacing in the St. John's game, and while teams targeted him on defense in important situations earlier in the season to their benefit, I don't remember instances of that happening the last couple of games (could be wrong there; going off the dome). Five rebounds, three points, one assist and one dead-ball turnover in 15 minutes is an acceptable contribution for a 7th man in a game like this, even if he didn't make a 3.
Say there is pressure to keep Miller involved in the rotation going into a game. Once the bullets are flying, Mac's still playing to win and he's going to make the calls he thinks will give them the best chance of doing that. What he saw on Friday was Žugić unprepared for the on-ball pressure Marquette was applying (the happy feet travel and the pick-six pass, the latter of which you simply can't afford in that game) while Creighton was winning the minutes with Miller out there, so he let it ride. I can't really blame him for that. Marquette outscored Creighton 9-4 in the 91 seconds Zugic was on the court, scoring five points off his two turnovers (and CU's first point was Miller's second FT on a foul that happened before Fedor checked in).
Moving forward, for this team to approach its ceiling, that equation needs to start shifting in Žugić's favor. I don't know how many times Mac has told fans it's going to be a process. I can't really explain it any more clearly than I have on multiple platforms.
I appreciate the lengthy and informative explanation, and you probably know more about hoops then I will forget, but this still does not explain the rationale behind keeping a player who's best statistic is their +/- through two games in games over a player who has pro experience and obviously is in desperate need of actual playing time to perhaps ease the pressure and also get a good feel for Big East play.
We are likely at a point in the season where our NCAA tournament hopes will be decided in the next two weeks or so, and if there was ever a time to take a risk (it's not really a risk but Mac seems to be the most risk averse person out there) it is now. Stop playing Miller, play Green and Traudt who despite their flaws, have shown infinitely more improvement and promise than Miller, and get Zugic the experience he needs. I don't think fans are hyperfixated so much as they seem to recognize the biggest gaping hole in our roster while the coaching staff doesn't seem to. That has fans worried, and rightfully so. Miller shouldn't even be starting for most mid majors, much less a program who has regular tournament hopes and should be making it past the first weekend as the standard.
The issue is the gaping hole on the roster is an entire position, not an individual player (and you're kidding yourself if you think Mac watches the tape and doesn't see any problem with the way Mason's playing; he just hasn't reached the conclusion that benching him entirely will produce the results the team needs). With Neal having to play all his minutes at the 2, Creighton doesn't have an answer at the 3 on this roster right now. Jackson and Isaac are both strictly 4s. Jasen and Mason both take things you need at that spot off the table (and again, for whatever reason — could be random chance — Creighton was a lot better in this game with Mason in than Jasen, despite neither playing particularly well; Jasen still played 26 minutes to Mason's 14).
They do seem to be incorporating Fedor at the 2, but sliding Jamiya back to the 3 shouldn't be much of an issue if Fedor becomes a viable option for more extended minutes.
Mac's not going to do something ("take risks") that he has little faith in working. Fedor made some plays in the St. John's game and got a bit more run. Against Marquette, I'm guessing Mac felt they couldn't afford to let him "play through it" without digging too deep of a hole based on what he saw in the 91 seconds; he's coaching to win that game, not giving minutes for the sake of future development. Like any coach, he may not always make the right calls (like going zone in that game), but there is logic behind those decisions.
Mason also isn't starting anymore; they've already made that change. Hopefully Fedor can make the progress the team needs him to make soon.
