2024 Offseason

[cujaysfan]

Probably wrong thoughts.

Getting on the floor usually means knowing where to be and what to do on D. Neal is both a veteran of college basketball and has been working out with guys since end of May.

Fedor shows up mid August.

That's a lot of ground to make up.

While I think Fedor is likely much more talented than most of our Euro guys (and Rati coming off a knee injury). We haven't had a day one starter from Europe.

So, I'll be surprised if he's a starter at beginning of season.

[skinzfan23]

Hopefully, this comes through:

https://x.com/bluejaymbb?s=11

Hopefully big Fred does that in the reg season. Dunking over Kalk with ease, wow!!

[#RollJays]

My stab at the rotation with Zugic

1 - Ashworth 30 mpg Pop 10 mpg
2 - Pop 20 mpg Zugic 10 mpg LJ 10 mpg
3 - Neal 27 mpg Zugic 13 mpg
4 - Green 15 mpg McAndrew 15 mpg Mason 10 mpg
5 - Kalk 28 mpg King 6mpg Traudt 6 mpg

I think Zugic showing up in mid August makes it easier to justify a 6th man type role for him. Really don’t know what we are going to do at the 4. McAndrew is too good to redshirt. Someone is going to be the odd man out. Does Fred King consider redshirting to avoid wasting another year of eligibility for 6-8 mpg. Zugic on the roster pretty much eliminates any chance of Mason, Green or McAndrew sliding down to the 3.

[Chicagojayfan]

My stab at the rotation with Zugic

1 - Ashworth 30 mpg Pop 10 mpg
2 - Pop 20 mpg Zugic 10 mpg LJ 10 mpg
3 - Neal 27 mpg Zugic 13 mpg
4 - Green 15 mpg McAndrew 15 mpg Mason 10 mpg
5 - Kalk 28 mpg King 6mpg Traudt 6 mpg

I think Zugic showing up in mid August makes it easier to justify a 6th man type role for him. Really don’t know what we are going to do at the 4. McAndrew is too good to redshirt. Someone is going to be the odd man out. Does Fred King consider redshirting to avoid wasting another year of eligibility for 6-8 mpg. Zugic on the roster pretty much eliminates any chance of Mason, Green or McAndrew sliding down to the 3.

Agree on the Guard rotation for the most part. Zugic coming late makes it more difficult to get into a starting role and we shouldn't underestimate the adjustment in coming from overseas to the US, college, and college ball

I don't know that Neal gets that many minutes - he's only played that much once and that was on a team that was < .500 overall and in conference. He's got some unique skills, but he also shot 27.5 from 3 PT, doesn't produce many assists, and rebounding is good for a guard/SF, but nothing like Baylor's ability there. My guess is he is a bit lower in minutes than you have here

For the forwards, I'd say don't underestimate Traudt and Miller. Traudt's reportedly reshaped his body after last year, and while Miller has the broken leg to come back I still think he can make a big jump over last year.

Hopefully we can rest Kalk more this year, but maybe King bounces after a disappointing year last year and maybe we can go small ball with some of those forwards to get them on the floor (e.g., can Green play the post with McAndrew as the 4 on D, for instance, a bit like Patton and Hegner?)

[LJay]

McAndrew may be 6’9 but from what I’ve seen he is a wing player. We’ll see if he can guard that position but if so I see him more of a 3 than a 4.

[Jaysker12]

Good discussion. I generally agree that one of the newcomers in the backcourt will be benched before Ashworth. And agree Ljay that who starts matters less than who finishes. It seemed last year we wanted to deal big offensive knockout punches with our starting unit.

Chicago, I think your assessment of Neal is presumptive at this point. He led ASU in rebounds and had the 3rd most assists last year, and only turned the ball over once per game in a relatively high usage role. Yes, his shooting is bad, but I think you are selling the rest of his game short. Mac highly values guards who can rebound and start the break, and we will need that in Baylor's absence. Also, what he brings defensively could justify a lot of minutes by itself.

I see McAndrew as a better fit at the 3 not only offensively, but defensively as well, even if his footspeed is not quite there yet. I do not know how well he will fare defensively and rebounding-wise against some of the larger Big East 4's. He's firmly in tweener territory..I still think his position will come down to where he can be best hidden on defense.

And I agree with Seattle... I feel like our backcourt has been undersized and un-physical since the Jefferson/Mahoney class departed. It got worse when AOC graduated and we really haven't had any big guards come through since. It appears we have the roster now to play with some size up front, which is exciting.

[SeattleJay]

It will be interesting to see how the Zugic commitment, if and/or when it happens, is announced and how it affects our preseason rankings. I think it should move CU to a consensus top 10.

I’ll be especially interested in how Bart Torvik changes his rankings. Currently, he has us at 13.

[SeattleJay]

I keep hearing this argument so went back to an older media guide picking the 19-20 with stats for the 18-19 season and see that 10 guys averaged 8.9 minutes or more; 11 if you count Jacob Epperson’s 9.1 minutes per in only 9 games.

Bishop 8.9 in 28 games
Froling 8.9 in 30 games
Cashaw 11.2 in 33 games
Joseph 15.7 in 35 games
Jefferson 18.0 in 26 games
Krampelj 25.3 in 35 games
Zegarowski 28.6 in 33 games
Mintz 28.8 in 35 games
Alexander 32.9 in 34 games
Ballock 33.0 in 35 games

If guys can ball they will play.

Kinda cherry picking a stat here on an NIT team that lost a ton from the year prior. If you go look at conference games for that season all 5 starters pretty much played 30+mpg. There were also multiple injuries that year.

I looked at the last 11 years. You both have a point. Between 2015 to 2019, Mac played 11 or 12 guys more than 5 minutes a game. In 3 of the last 4 years, it’s been 9 guys. More importantly, the concentration has become much greater with 4 guys playing more than 30 minutes in recent years: 2021, 2023 and 2024. From 2014 to 2019 there were never more than 2 guys playing over 30 minutes.

Unfortunately, there are tons of different ways to break down the minutes but generally there has been a fairly significant shift to a more concentrated lineup in the last 4 years.

While Baylor, Trey and Kalk played at a very high level for 35 minutes plus this past season, it seems to me that it’s going to be more important than ever to play more guys or risk losing them.

One final point: the number of timeouts seems to be a factor in allowing guys to stay in games and stay effective. I don’t recall how and/or when these rules have changed. Along with improved conditioning, it could be a major factor in the rotation spread or rather the lack thereof.

[Chicagojayfan]

...

Chicago, I think your assessment of Neal is presumptive at this point. He led ASU in rebounds and had the 3rd most assists last year, and only turned the ball over once per game in a relatively high usage role. Yes, his shooting is bad, but I think you are selling the rest of his game short. Mac highly values guards who can rebound and start the break, and we will need that in Baylor's absence. Also, what he brings defensively could justify a lot of minutes by itself.

....

I think his rank on his team in counting stats was more about the team he was on in terms of rebounds and assists (and turnovers). Baylor played a ton last year in large part because he improved his D AND he stuffed the stat sheet all over.

Per 40 (relevant given they played roughly the same minutes:
Neal vs. Baylor
Rebounds: 6.7 to 9.8
Assists: 2.1 to 4.3
Turnovers: 1.4 to 2.4
rebound rate: 9% to 14%
TS% .495 to .596

I'm pretty high on Neal, but minutes are going to be tough, and we need to be realistic that he isn't Baylor and will have others competing for that time

[Django]

Neal’s defense is what’s going to get him minutes. If he can lock down the opposing team’s stud he will be a very important piece for us. And the ability to drive and finish in the paint. I think he will be a very important player. We missed Kalumas athletic ability on D last year so I hope Neal can make some of those spectacular's defensive plays that Arthur seemed to have at clutch times and also throw down some dunks on the offensive end. He will be one of the better athletes along with Green and LJ.