2023 transfer portal

[Realhoops]

I agree that Mac's history suggests a couple of things are likely.

Bello is likely to get some consistent significant minutes -- he's been here for a year, Mac trusts him, and he doesn't make a lot of mistakes. I know we were all disappointed and frustrated with the shooting percentage and misses on open threes, etc. But Mac is rarely as bothered by that. He pretty much always values somebody understanding what is supposed to be done, where to be, etc., over makes and misses. I think if we get somebody like Rohde he could well play himself into a 6th man spot to relieve PG1 (hopefully Ashworth). Bello is more of a relief at SG than PG, to me. But if Ashworth is able to get up to speed, run the show at a high level, etc., Mac may well also play him a ton of minutes at PG as he has done with his other PG1s.

Mac tends to use a fairly short rotation. With the way it looks like this roster might be shaping up, I could see Miller / Traudt splitting minutes -- either as backups to Art or as starter / backup at the 4. I think King will absolutely need to get more minutes next year than he did this year, but you also are never going to diminish Kalk's minutes by some huge amount. I would not be surprised to see Green get pretty sparse minutes outside of the early games, with him needing to be patient and look to opportunities that might come AFTER next year, especially if Art comes back. I would not be surprised to see Dotzler end up redshirting if we get Ashworth and Rohde both.

At the same time, Mac absolutely HAS shown the ability to recognize how the game is changing, make adjustments to his own approach to take the next step, etc. It wasn't that many years ago that we were an offensive juggernaut with very little consistent teeth to the defense. Now we've been almost more of a defensive team with a good offense. The roster may be shaping up to flip that a bit and be an offensive team with a good defense. BUT it is also possible that Mac is able to see what everyone else is -- one of the biggest things that held us back from actually winning a national championship last year was that our bench was nonexistent, while teams like SDSU and UConn were able to reliably get meaningful production from their 8th and 9th guys. So it would not totally shock me to see him actually really strive to make that a priority with our makeup next year -- he sort of seemed to be thinking that last year when he started out the season talking about how "deep" he felt we were from the bench, even though it didn't materialize.

[#RollJays]

I agree that Mac's history suggests a couple of things are likely.

Bello is likely to get some consistent significant minutes -- he's been here for a year, Mac trusts him, and he doesn't make a lot of mistakes. I know we were all disappointed and frustrated with the shooting percentage and misses on open threes, etc. But Mac is rarely as bothered by that. He pretty much always values somebody understanding what is supposed to be done, where to be, etc., over makes and misses. I think if we get somebody like Rohde he could well play himself into a 6th man spot to relieve PG1 (hopefully Ashworth). Bello is more of a relief at SG than PG, to me. But if Ashworth is able to get up to speed, run the show at a high level, etc., Mac may well also play him a ton of minutes at PG as he has done with his other PG1s.

Mac tends to use a fairly short rotation. With the way it looks like this roster might be shaping up, I could see Miller / Traudt splitting minutes -- either as backups to Art or as starter / backup at the 4. I think King will absolutely need to get more minutes next year than he did this year, but you also are never going to diminish Kalk's minutes by some huge amount. I would not be surprised to see Green get pretty sparse minutes outside of the early games, with him needing to be patient and look to opportunities that might come AFTER next year, especially if Art comes back. I would not be surprised to see Dotzler end up redshirting if we get Ashworth and Rohde both.

At the same time, Mac absolutely HAS shown the ability to recognize how the game is changing, make adjustments to his own approach to take the next step, etc. It wasn't that many years ago that we were an offensive juggernaut with very little consistent teeth to the defense. Now we've been almost more of a defensive team with a good offense. The roster may be shaping up to flip that a bit and be an offensive team with a good defense. BUT it is also possible that Mac is able to see what everyone else is -- one of the biggest things that held us back from actually winning a national championship last year was that our bench was nonexistent, while teams like SDSU and UConn were able to reliably get meaningful production from their 8th and 9th guys. So it would not totally shock me to see him actually really strive to make that a priority with our makeup next year -- he sort of seemed to be thinking that last year when he started out the season talking about how "deep" he felt we were from the bench, even though it didn't materialize.

Rohde being able to create a bucket off the bench would be such a massive improvement for us.

[Chicagojayfan]

Don't think we can expect to fill every scholarship available with immediate impact players. You land your top targets then probably look to fill out the roster with developmental guys who maybe aren't looking to play a big role immediately. Only so many guys can play.

Say they return all four remaining starters and land both a starting guard and a sixth-man type. If Mac goes 9 deep (assuming the bench guys can stay on the court this year and Mac trusts them a little more), you're looking at something like:

Transfer G (30)
Alexander (30), Farabello (12)
Scheierman (30), Transfer Guard/Wing (20)
Kaluma (28), Traudt/Miller/Green (10)
Kalkbrenner (30), King (10)
That leaves Dotzler plus whoever they else they add out of the regular rotation (up to two scholarships to fill).

Let's just speculate that Kaluma doesn't return and that they land both of this weekend's visitors. We're looking at something like:

Ashworth (30)
Alexander (30), Farabello (12)
Scheierman (30), Rohde (21)
Traudt/Miller/Green (37)
Kalkbrenner (30), King (10)
Again, that leaves Dotzler plus whoever they else they add out of the regular rotation.

Point is I'm not sure "needs" will matter much because if they hit on their top targets there probably won't be minutes leftover for anybody else (unless they recruit over Farabello and land three rotation guards out of the portal, or recruit over that PF trio including a guy they just added in Traudt). With two scholarships left, maybe you target a young wing/guard, maybe a third center with upside for scout team purposes (remember, Yates is gone).

Great breakdown, Jacob, and I'm happy with those scenarios as well. I was a bit hopeful we'd find an older, physical guard/wing type who could fit against the SD State type teams, but Ashworth, Rohde, and Traudt all give us a lot of offensive depth, and as you say, minutes have to be available to fit additional people in.

Not really applicable to this year, but in the future having a scholarship available makes sense as I think we'll start to see people doing a 2nd transfer and needing a scholarship to sit a year (if I'm understanding the rules correctly). For this year, we could use one on a depth guy who needs a development year also, even if it's hard to RS 2 guys in the same year

[Chicagojayfan]

Also +1 to Realhoops and great discussion all around in this thread!

- would be great to see a deeper bench/rotation this year and Mac really does adjust - he seems to do great analysis around the team and work to improve the program from top to bottom (I remember the defensive emphasis, but also the S&C work - which I think came after Doug went to the NBA)

[HandDownManDown]

Here’s something else: leaving a scholarship open is one less mouth to feed NIL wise.

If our collective is looking to create a floor for our players, this either allows us to bank a chunk of it for future use or kick a 1/12 share to our existing guys, making our base offer incrementally better without any more fundraising.

[#RollJays]

Here’s something else: leaving a scholarship open is one less mouth to feed NIL wise.

If our collective is looking to create a floor for our players, this either allows us to bank a chunk of it for future use or kick a 1/12 share to our existing guys, making our base offer incrementally better without any more fundraising.

To your point we can divvy up the extra 2 shares if Art leaves. If we land both Rohde and Ashworth, there is zero minutes available to a non nba guy.

[LJay]

Yetna from Seton Hall to the portal.

Portal has the best team in the nation!

[Alphawalt]

I wonder what percentage of players will find the portal a disappointing experience? It will be rewarding for players like Nembhard, Dickinson, Abmas, but stark reality will set in for middle to lower level power conference players. The grass is not always greener on the other side, although I suspect NIL deals in general are going up in amounts. But you would think NIL money would end up being comparable at power schools for middle to lower level players, and playing time the only real issue for most lower end players. With so many in the portal, I don’t see how many of these players will indeed get more playing time (always will have a few exceptions who want to play for a top team, and are willing to play less minutes if NIL money is same or greater).

On another note, I am surprised on many comments on this board that seem to be selling Traudt short. If Kaluma is gone, I see Traudt as a clear starter, Miller and Green would be coming off the bench. Dude has some skills, with height and tenacity.

[JayPak]

I am not a big Hurley fan but U Conn had a great rotation. He played 5 guys between 25 and 30 minutes. And, then he played 4 guys between 12 and 18 minutes. 9 man rotation.

To me that is pretty amazing. It keeps your starters from being worn out and it keeps the bench guys engaged and ready for their moment.

Obviously, you need a lot of talent. It’s tough to play 9. It’s really hard to keep 10 guys happy.

That’s basically what Dana used to do here as well. Mac has never, in all his years here, been comfortable with that sort of rotation.

He's had a few that have had 9 man rotations at Creighton. His better teams have definitely been tighter rotations though.

Mac's most extensive rotations were in 2010-11 and 2016-17. After that, the last two MVC teams.

[Chicagojayfan]

I wonder what percentage of players will find the portal a disappointing experience? It will be rewarding for players like Nembhard, Dickinson, Abmas, but stark reality will set in for middle to lower level power conference players. The grass is not always greener on the other side, although I suspect NIL deals in general are going up in amounts. But you would think NIL money would end up being comparable at power schools for middle to lower level players, and playing time the only real issue for most lower end players. With so many in the portal, I don’t see how many of these players will indeed get more playing time (always will have a few exceptions who want to play for a top team, and are willing to play less minutes if NIL money is same or greater).

On another note, I am surprised on many comments on this board that seem to be selling Traudt short. If Kaluma is gone, I see Traudt as a clear starter, Miller and Green would be coming off the bench. Dude has some skills, with height and tenacity.

we're going to see a lot of players dropping to mid majors to clear space and money, and playing time will always be a big factor. Once the first free transfer wave works it's way out, and the Covid year graduates (I guess after this year?) the system will start to make more sense, IMO

I don't know that if anyone is downgrading Traudt, but I also think Miller will have a big jump this year - the two of them definitely give the roster flexibility as Traudt can play some 5's who shoot the 3 out on the perimeter and Miller can switch and play more of a wing role as well. Don't know what will happen with Kaluma, but I'm fine with our situation at the 4 either way