2020 Transfers

[Durango Jay]

There are now 788 kids in the transfer portal.
https://mobile.twitter.com/adamzagoria/ ... 20579?s=21

[JacobPadilla]

Ugh. Perhaps a bit of an overreaction?

I will say this, though, it's disheartening to miss on so many sit one transfers. I'm sure a good portion of them are unrealistically hoping that the NCAA does away with the resident year this summer effective immediately (personally, I hate the idea since it'll turn mid-major leagues into a glorified farm system and because every player still can play a full 4 years of college ball despite sitting out a season) and thus we weren't attractive in the slightest because of our playing time situation - at least before Ty-Shon announced his departure. That said, as of now we've only got six scholarship players for 21-22. Forget just getting BE level talent, we need bodies, period, for that year.
So while it's overreaction now, I won't lie that I'm starting to get nervous. We're putting pretty much all of our eggs in the baskets of Tamar Bates, Sallis, Jalen Warley, Tucker DeVries, etc. if we don't get any more sit out transfers. And to be totally honest, our overall recruiting performance since the Class of 2017 (TSA, Mitch, Jacob class) doesn't exactly comfort me.

Marcus Zegarowski, Christian Bishop, Denzel Mahoney, Antwann Jones, Alex O’Connell and Ryan Kalkbrenner don’t comfort you?

You're missing my point. Consider how many targets we whiffed on that led us to recruit the guys you just listed. Ayo Dosunmu and Tyger Campbell were our first couple options at PG; we got Marcus. Same with Filip Petrusev, A.J. Lawson, Swider (though he might have been an OK miss) at the forward/wing spot; we landed Denzel. The only recruits who appear to be our first choice were Bishop and AOC, if you take him at his word.
Yes, Marcus, Christian, and Denzel have been quite successful, but how long do you think we can get lucky with our third, fourth, and even the occasional fifth options and be able to compete in the BE? Remember, our first and second options are generally top 100 4 star frosh or top mid-major transfers, with an occasional periphery 5 star in there, so when you miss you're moving down to 3 star level frosh outside the top 150, less-desired transfers like Damien (who has turned out really well all things considered), and grad transfers to plug holes for a season. Miss on those and you're left with clear cut mid-major level players who you might get lucky with or else they'll be out the door after one season (see Windham, Marlon Stewart, Paras). And two bad class is all it takes to miss multiple NCAA tournaments.
Finally, let us not forget that for the last few years we've been giving a walk-on a scholarship instead of an actual major player. So no, forgive me if our recruiting recently doesn't make me "comfortable."

Missing out on Tyger Campbell and Ayo Dosunmu and landing Marcus Zegarowski is exactly how recruiting works. You're going to miss out on far more players that you offer than you land. The way you're looking at it can only lead to disappointment.

Should the staff be penalized for identifying Jeremiah Robinson-Earl's potential and offering him before anyone else, before he established himself as a 5-star who would have his pick of blue blood schools? Does that count as a "miss" for the staff? Or should it be proof of their ability to evaluate talent? Because that ability is how Mac has been able to build two top-10 teams
in the last four years (with the potential for a third next season).

Newsflash: Creighton is not going to beat Villanova, Kansas or North Carolina head-to-head for recruits very often. If those schools get involved with players Creighton identifies earlier on, the Jays are going to have a tough time landing them. But every once in a while they'll land a Mitch Ballock, which is why it's worth it even if they "miss" on far more than they land.

Ballock, Alexander, Bishop, Zegarowski, Epperson and Kalkbrenner were all top-150 recruits depending on where you look, and Ballock, Epperson and Kalkbrenner were top-100. Then they filled in the gaps with impact transfers, where the eye for talent shows itself again. The staff's hit rate in recruiting has been more than high enough to build good teams that can compete in the Big East. Until they strike out in 2021 there's no reason to assume they're going to do so.

[mel ott]

Jacob, that is one of the top posts of the year. I believe one of the most amazing things about our coaching staff, beyond being top notch individuals that represent Creighton well, is their ability to evaluate talent levels of the recruits. They just don't go by recruiting numbers, but look at the character of the athlete and how he would fit in to our system. It's hard to believe that the dream a lot of us old timers had, that we would be competitive in a conference like this, has materialized from a small Jesuit school in Omaha!

[Savannah Jay]

Jacob, that is one of the top posts of the year. I believe one of the most amazing things about our coaching staff, beyond being top notch individuals that represent Creighton well, is their ability to evaluate talent levels of the recruits. They just don't go by recruiting numbers, but look at the character of the athlete and how he would fit in to our system. It's hard to believe that the dream a lot of us old timers had, that we would be competitive in a conference like this, has materialized from a small Jesuit school in Omaha!

What Mel said...

I would add that we have the most talented, "highest rated" roster of players/recruits in our school's history, have another top kid coming next year, just finished with a top 10 ranking...and we're complaining about missing out on a particular recruit?

[Nord]

100% agree with Jacob. Another way to say the same thing is to think about the numbers. Think of the top 150 recruits. How many, on average, should Creighton get? The top 10 blue bloods probably grab 40-50 of them. Most likely only the next top 50 schools battle for the remaining 100 or so. So, if we get 2 we are doing good. 3 would be great. But we will go after about 20 of them. So is landing 2 out of 20 targets crappy? No, it’s completely normal. Have some perspective.

[Chicagojayfan]

Jacob, that is one of the top posts of the year. I believe one of the most amazing things about our coaching staff, beyond being top notch individuals that represent Creighton well, is their ability to evaluate talent levels of the recruits. They just don't go by recruiting numbers, but look at the character of the athlete and how he would fit in to our system. It's hard to believe that the dream a lot of us old timers had, that we would be competitive in a conference like this, has materialized from a small Jesuit school in Omaha!

+1. Great post Jacob!

I'd add that the talent on our roster is the best it has ever been, especially in comparison to where we were just a few years ago.

[Ethanfor3]

100% agree with Jacob. Another way to say the same thing is to think about the numbers. Think of the top 150 recruits. How many, on average, should Creighton get? The top 10 blue bloods probably grab 40-50 of them. Most likely only the next top 50 schools battle for the remaining 100 or so. So, if we get 2 we are doing good. 3 would be great. But we will go after about 20 of them. So is landing 2 out of 20 targets crappy? No, it’s completely normal. Have some perspective.

Nice work, I had started typing out a much more detailed view of this when this came across...much more succinct and dead on.

We've had a great run of recruiting with the exception of the 2019 class and that class brought us Antwann Jones as a transfer (a former top recruit). Just a quick reminder of the Top 150 guys we've had by year


2017
Epperson
Ballock
Alexander
Jefferson (transfer, arguably plays like top 150)

2018
Bishop
Frolling
Zegarowski ( a scrub from a ratings standpoint )
Mahoney (transfer arguably plays like top 150)

2019
Antwann Jones

2020
Kalkbrenner
O'Connel

That being said. I'd love to add at least one more stud to this year and then next year is a big one.

Go Jays!

[LJay]

For accuracy sake, Z was #110 in the 247 ratings.

https://247sports.com/player/marcus-zegarowski-94191/

[Nord]

Although I don’t like how unreasonable some people can be about recruiting, I will say it’s fair to be unhappy with how we have fared with HS recruiting lately (settings transfers aside). It can really flip though on just a few decisions so I am not sure if it’s more bad luck than bad recruiting. We seem to have a good approach.

[Wizard of Westroads]

DJ was a composite 129 on Verbal Commits:
http://www.verbalcommits.com/players/damien-jefferson

Committed in spring of his junior year to New Mexico, where his dad played, or he might have had better offers. Averaged 23.9 ppg and 9.9 rbs as a junior in high school, started some games as a freshman at NM. I think he's got a lot more in him.