Future Schedules

[cujaysfan]

won't help us much this year - but i hope we're really hitting up the schools that have been left behind in the big east for non-con games next season.

they're going to need an RPI boost losing some of their better programs. home and homes might be able to be had...

[LJay]

I am very hopeful with the advent of these neutral and neutral opportunities that seem to be popping up that the new arena in Lincoln gives us the chance to schedule something like this with a program that won't consider a trip to the CLink but maybe 50 miles away..........

[vjay]

The national guys are on it, too:

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports. ... e-desired/

Looks like Rob Dauster and Dirk might be buddies because that is pretty much the exact same angle in both stories.

Since they are both too lazy to do the research, I will...

Last season, Creighton played four non-conference teams with RPI's in the top-100 (Long Beach State, San Diego State, Northwestern, St. Joseph's) and another three that ranked in the top-125 (UAB, Tulsa and Iowa). Both Long Beach State and San Diego State lost their NCAA openers. CU also played four non-league 200+ RPI teams.

Let's take a look at how the 2012-13 schedule potentially shakes out:

Top 75 RPI team for H-H or 1-gm neutral site - on the CU wish list which I think they will get done. It likely won't be a one-and-done at Carolina, Kansas or Kentucky...

2 games TBA as part of Vegas Tourney - likely the only 200+ RPI non-conference games on the Jays 12-13 schedule...

2 games at Vegas Tourney - I would guess that the first game would be against either Arkansas or Wisconsin. Wisconsin has been a perennial Top-25 team under Bo Ryan. Even with the loss of point guard Jordan Taylor, the Badgers should be good yet again. As for Arkansas (RPI 116 last season), they return 3 starters (just had a starter transfer out three days ago) and 7 of their top 8 scores from a year ago. With another year of Mike Anderson's system under their belts, the Razorbacks should be on the improve - and a likely top 100 team, maybe even top 75. The one team CU doesn't want to see in Vegas is Arizona State. While the Sun Devils have a few nice players, they are still a long way from where they want to be and are likely headed for another bottom 1/3 Pac 12 finish - and an RPI in the 150-175 range.

Boise State (MVC/MWC challenge) - The Broncos had an RPI of 181 in 11-12 and return the top six scorers from a year ago. They are young with just one senior. Likely not top-125, but you would think they would certainly improve off last season with all of the scoring they return.

Akron (BracketBuster return from 2011 - Don't sleep on the Zips. Akron returns four starters from last season's 22-win squad. Akron finished 2011-12 with an RPI of 68. An almost certain top-75 team, they could even crack the top 50.

UAB - The Blazers one loss is significant as they lose double-double machine Cameron Moore (16 ppg, 10 rpg). But they do return their other four starters and likely get an upgrade in coaching as Mike Davis has now shown at more than one school that he may not be the greatest at X's and O's. UAB had a final RPI of 115 last season and they appear to be a borderline RPI top-100 team in 2012-13.

St. Joseph's - A team that was in the RPI top-75 throughout all of last season before ending with an RPI of 77, the Hawks are certainly a team on the rise and return nearly everyone of significance from a year ago. Certainly top-75, likely top-50, outside chance of top-30.

California - Also a team that should be on the rise based on the amount of returnees. Was a top-50 team throughout most of last season and should be the same or slightly better in 12-13.

Tulsa - New coach Danny Manning will have some work to do as he loses 3 of the top 4 scorers from a year ago. A rebuilding year that should see Tulsa somewhere in the 150-175 range.

Nebraska - By all accounts Tim Miles can coach. Some would argue that he has more talent now with the Cornhuskers than he did last year in leading Colorado State to the NCAA Tournament. With all that said, it will take some time to right the ship down in Lincoln as Nebraska is likely headed for a 125-150 RPI type of season.

So, if CU is able to find that TBD top-75 opponent, then you have six likely top-100 teams already (Wisconsin, Arkansas, Akron, St. Joseph's, California and the TBD opponent) as well as a team that will be a borderline top-100 team (UAB). Obviously, the Vegas Tourney is key as far as avoiding Arizona State. Add to that a road BracketBuster opponent in February 2013 that if the Jays have the season that most are predicting will also be a certain top 75 opponent. The Jays will also have only two non-league games vs. RPI 200+ teams (the two home games of the Vegas Tourney). That's certainly better than last year. Is it what Dirk wants? No. To that I say, screw him as CU basketball is not around to make him happy.

For a non-BCS team with 6 or 7 top-100 non-league games on its schedule is pretty significant. I'm sure Dirk has done the research on this (sarcasm), but of the three programs he raved about as (Gonzaga, Xavier and Butler) being able to schedule really well, last season, Gonzaga had six RPI top-100 non-league games, Xavier and Butler had seven each. Of the three teams combined, the only one that had a non-conference game against a top-10 opponent (the type that Dirk suggests we go and find) was Gonzaga against RPI #3 Michigan State. In fairness, Butler had games against #11 Louisville and #12 Indiana so those are near top 10 games.

That's my 2 cents on the subject.

Also, from another post, it was Auburn who called Ras to ask for CU to come down for a buy game. CU was offered 80k. Ras then told the Assoc. AD from Auburn who made the call that CU would by them for 100k. Needless to say, Auburn never called back or took Ras up on the offer.

[jays911]

Now NBC spewing the Dirk argument: [link]

[WBR Tom]

Most of these same points have been discussed on the BJU/WBR previously, but here's a solid piece from Yahoo's Jeff Eisenberg on why Creighton and Wichita State drew uninspiring matchups in this year's MWC-MVC Challenge:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the ... 07160.html

At the bottom of this article is (another) confirmation from Mike Kern of the MVC that the challenge will not continue after this year.

[gtmoBlue]

Commish's of both conferences have a teleconference.
Make an exception to the rules, for this - the final year of the challenge.
A single year exception benefits the top teams of both conferences. <br>
Re-shuffle matchups to favor pitting the top teams against each other.
Enhances RPI/SOS on both sides, a plus for Selection Sunday in March.

[section221jay]

Can't say I disagree with Dirk all that much. The position that CU will not do a 1 and done because "you lose your bargaining chip" is kind of pointless. Kansas will NEVER come to Omaha to play Creighton. So there is nothing to negotiate.

I see mention that KU laughed at CU when they asked for "a game". Given McDermott's position of not doing 1 and dones am I safe to assume he proposed a home and home? If so, of course they laughed. The fact CU can get home and homes with Northwestern or Cal or Nebraska is not proof that that negotiating position (no 1 and dones) is an effective one.

If you want to schedule the REAL big boys you're going to have to do it on their terms. They get a dozen big games in conference every year. They can schedule each other in big OOC games...either neutral site or home and homes. They are never going to do a home and home with Creighton...so saying it's a bargaining chip is not true. They don't need it. I'm not saying do it often. Not saying do it every year. I'm saying though that it would not be a bad idea at all to do it once a year for the next couple years...these next two years are important if CU is going to break through into one of those other "tiers" that Dirk came up with. To get on the map for real CU is going to have to do more than win a ton of games against Indiana State, UAB, Alcon State etc. that the nation generally yawns at. CU needs to beat someone big. Taking a chance on a 1 and done has no downside. It doesn't hurt future scheduling. Doesn't hurt post season chances. And has a lot of upside.

You assume the chip is with the KUs of the world. It is with the Cal and northwesterns

Right. Take the hypothetical buy game with Kansas, and home-and-home possibilities with Cal and Northwestern go bye-bye. That's the bargaining chip they're talking about. In any event, Kansas laughed in our face when we offered to come play them in a one-and-done in Lawrence, so all of this is a moot point...fun to discuss, but moot nonetheless.

I'm no more privy to the inner workings of negotiations than you are but...I find it extremely hard to believe that if CU took a one and done with a Kansas, Duke, whatever that all of a sudden Northwestern thinks they are in the same leaque and can make the same demands. Don't believe that for a second. Now, do a 1 and done with a second rate power conference program like Northwestern and yeah, a precedent is set. But even NW knows they aren't Kansas. Not buying it.

Someone else said that only one program ever asked for a 1 and done. If that were the case then why would the topic even come up? Why talk about a bargaining chip that never comes into play? Why not just say "we can't get games with those programs. Not home and home. Not 1 and done. Nothing." Instead they say they won't do it because it takes away the proverbial "bargaining chip".

Some programs in Creighton's position manage to get these games. Maybe someone should ask them how they do it. I suppose it's possible the only way is to go deep in the tourney first.

[section221jay]

The problem with this analysis is that, in college basketball, the home team wins 75%+ of the time. I believe it is the sport with the biggest home court advantage. You can take the team on the road to play against the big boys, but if you are consistently playing one-off road games against Top 25-caliber teams, it will be a losing proposition in the long run...

Nobody proposes doing it "constantly". CU, for the next two years, might be in the middle of it's strongest era ever. It's a chance to capitalize on that. The 75% figure includes a LOT of games early in the year where teams are scheduling dogs like Florida A&M. Would the odds of winning at ______ (fill in the blank with some top 15 type team) be less than 50-50? Almost certainly. But a win could be huge for seeding (and thus improving the chance to go sweet 16 or better...an 8 seed is a death sentence) and for national rep. A respectable loss doesn't hurt at all. Pounding the shit out of a bunch of dweebs that can't walk and chew gum at the same time does nothing...and on that note props to McDermott for dropping the opener with hopes of finding something better.

[LJay]

Our windows are closing as marquee schools with open dates around Veteran's Day are pairing up per Andy Katz:

Ohio State and Marquette are negotiating to play on an aircraft carrier in South Carolina.

Kansas and Colorado are finalizing a home and home.

[Jet915]

So Bill Self laughs in our face but he'll do a home and home w/Colorado???? Ouch...