Bluejay Bilas wrote:Chicagojayfan wrote:
I think it is unfair to lump together Altman and McDermott's recruiting in this case. I did a lot of analysis a while back to look at recruiting and identify changes. The biggest was the number of kids who had other BCS offers. Altman had a strategy of identifying kids who were under the radar and really avoided confronting other BCS programs. McDermott has hit the AAU circuit hard and done a great job of selling the program even when it was MVC against B12, for instance. The Big East will only make that easier in the future.
I was ready for a coaching change, yet think it’s a stretch to say that Altman and his staff avoided competing against high majors for recruits. Similarly, I like McDermott, am not unhappy with his staff’s recruiting approaches, and am willing to wait and see what happens with all of his ‘11 through ‘13 recruits. But, I cannot yet get too excited by a staff that thus far has given us Coach Mac’s son, transfer Grant Gibbs, Austin Chatman, and a lot of question marks.Chicagojayfan wrote:
I also think the overall "rankings" are more suspect that the other offers a kid has. As a rule of thumb, toss out the Rivals rankings as "imperfect" measures and verify that you are recruiting against and winning recruiting battles against teams that are BCS and top 25 programs. That is the real measuring stick.
Offers are a good measuring stick, but unless there is ever more transparency or a new set of rules regarding how “offers” are made and honored, an offer-based method has some flaws. I agree that such a method of evaluating where a recruit stands has some advantages over looking at stars and rankings from multiple national rating services.Chicagojayfan wrote:
For an extreme example, look at these two guys from a past class:
PG - 4 stars, no other offers, interest from Fresno State, Stanford, San Diego State (may have gotten him early enough, but no BCS offers should be a red flag)
SF - 2 stars, offers from Marquette, Providence, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, interest from Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan.
Which of those turned out better? Which one moved us up the Rivals recruiting rankings?
Poor Bock. He really was a miss, and has not exactly shined at Pacific.
I am a pretty big Wragge fan, but it’s hard at this point to compare him to a 4-star guy and say that his 2-star rating was way off base, even though he is certainly better than that specific 4-star recruit. Wragge brings plenty to the table, and I am certain that numerous high major teams would be happy to have him as a bench option, but let’s not act as though he’s performed well above what his recruiting rating suggested (although I remember it kind of seeming like that during that miserable CIT year, where he was the only guy who seemed to be living up to or surpassing expectations). If one Ethan Wragge-caliber player joined our team every year, that would be great, so long as a couple better, less one-dimensional guys were part of his class.Chicagojayfan wrote:
Which brings me to the 2013 class. let's look at the opposing offers:
Hanson - Arizona State, Gonzaga, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Northern Iowa, and interest from Wiscy, Minnesota and Iowa State (I think it's good we locked him up when we did). Can anyone find an Altman player (without academic or other troubles) that was that competitively recruited?
Hegner - Iowa State, Boston College, Northwestern, Marquette and others.
Harris - the most lightly recruited of the bunch, but we saw him up close and liked him a lot. Certainly he seems to fit our offensive style in a big way with his ability to pass, shoot and drive, and interest was supposedly growing as we landed him.
No need to sell me on these kids, and I will be thrilled if all three make the staff look like geniuses. They each have high major size, and Hegner especially seems to have a unique skill set for his size. If their drives and work ethics are first rate, there is no reason why at least 2 of them can’t have very solid Creighton careers. I’ve just noted more than once that historic trends and the related odds suggest that this group is not likely to be Creighton’s Fab Three (or Fab Five, if you add in the two Jucos).
For a good read on the AAU circuit, with direct references to both Mac and Andrew Bock, take a look at the book "Play Their Hearts Out".
